By Ben Pershing, Roll Call, February 2, 2006

2 Feb 2006 // After a 26-day campaign, the three candidates to succeed Rep. Tom DeLay (R-Texas) as House Majority Leader spent the last frantic moments before today’s zero hour plotting strategy with their whip teams as they looked to snatch votes from each other for a potential second-ballot showdown.

House Republicans will gather at noon today in the Cannon House Office Building Caucus Room to elect one new Leader from the trio of Reps. Roy Blunt (Mo.), John Boehner (Ohio) and John Shadegg (Ariz.). Blunt is the acknowledged frontrunner on the first secret ballot, but a variety of lawmakers and aides said a second-ballot matchup of Blunt and Boehner, if it occurs, could be too close to call.

“I think there will be a second ballot,” said Republican Study Committee Chairman Mike Pence (Ind.), who is backing Shadegg but has not said who he would support if his man is eliminated on the first ballot. “It’s a very dynamic environment.”

If Blunt wins and gives up his Majority Whip post, Chief Deputy Majority Whip Eric Cantor (R-Va.) is expected to prevail in his quest for a promotion against GOP Reps. Mike Rogers (Mich.), Todd Tiahrt (Kan.) and Zach Wamp (Tenn.). Several Members and leadership aides said they believed Cantor would win the Whip race on the first ballot.

Further down the leadership ladder, four lawmakers — Reps. Phil Gingrey (Ga.), Darrell Issa (Calif.), Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.) and Adam Putnam (Fla.) — are competing to succeed Shadegg as Republican Policy Committee chairman. Though that race has received scant attention, Putnam is expected by most observers to win the contest.

In each race, the candidates will be nominated in alphabetical order. Each candidate is allowed one three-minute nominating speech and two one-minute seconding speeches.

Ballots will then be handed out that are numbered one to 232 but will not be traceable to the lawmakers who fill each one out. The ballots will then be counted by three Members named as “tally clerks” by Conference Chairwoman Deborah Pryce (Ohio).

The Leader and Policy chair races — and possibly the Whip contest — will be the only ones on the ballot today after an effort by GOP Reps. John Sweeney (N.Y.) and Dan Lungren (Calif.) to vacate every leadership slot below Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) failed on a secret ballot at Wednesday’s Conference meeting. Their motion received 85 “yes” votes — more than many lawmakers expected — but also drew 117 votes in opposition.

Some Members saw that vote as a referendum on whether Blunt should be allowed to keep his Whip position if he loses the Leader race today. A handful of lawmakers have privately discussed the possibility of making a narrower motion today to vacate the Whip position, but as of Wednesday evening no Member had publicly vowed to take that step.

Blunt himself declined to say whether the vote on the Sweeney-Lungren motion meant anything for him, though he did point out many lawmakers had been absent for the vote.

“When 40 people are not at the Conference, you’ve got to consider that,” Blunt said.

Absenteeism could also play a role in today’s balloting. No floor votes are scheduled because Democrats will be at their retreat in Williamsburg, Va., and some Republicans may take the opportunity to sneak back to their districts despite the important leadership contests.

“The key strategy is making sure people stay in town,” said Conference Vice Chairman Jack Kingston (Ga.), a Blunt supporter. “We’ve got to make sure our people show up to vote.”

Blunt was able to clear a key hurdle Wednesday when the House passed the budget reconciliation measure 216-214. The bill had already been approved by the chamber twice but was still a test for the Missourian because it was expected to be so close and was scheduled just a day before the Leader vote.

Blunt’s four-dozen whips in the Leader race gathered in the same place for the first time Monday to compare notes and divvy up undecided lawmakers to target.

“It’s safe to say they’re dividing and conquering as far as reaching out to their colleagues,” said Blunt spokeswoman Jessica Boulanger.

Blunt met with RSC lawmakers at the Conservative Members Retreat on Monday. He spoke to moderate lawmakers at the Tuesday Group gathering the next day, and huddled with the Western Caucus on Wednesday. Blunt will wrap things up by having breakfast with several allies this morning.

Shadegg made the same three stops to visit Republican groups, and on Wednesday afternoon held a press conference to tout the endorsement of Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain. (A Blunt aide responded to that endorsement, tongue-somewhat-in-cheek, by pointing out that their man also had the support of his home state Republican Senators.)

Shadegg wrapped up the day by holding a conference call Wednesday evening with his whip team, which consists of 15 to 20 lawmakers.

Boehner went through similar motions in the past 24 hours, culminating in a 5 p.m. gathering for his supporters at the Education and the Workforce Committee room.

The focus of all three men’s efforts was on picking up commitments for a potential second ballot. Though handicapping a secret ballot can be perilous, a majority of lawmakers and aides predicted that a second ballot would include Blunt and Boehner after Shadegg is eliminated on the first ballot.

That scenario raises the question of whether Shadegg’s supporters would move together to one of the other candidates or whether they would fracture.

Shadegg said Wednesday that he would not endorse either of the other two candidates if he lost and that he was “not going to push a block” in either direction.

The race for second-ballot commitments raised the question of whether lawmakers who pledge their support to a candidate are doing so just for the first ballot or whether they will stick to their pledges through to the end.

“It is implied that you’re talking about both ballots, but you’d better be specific,” Kingston said.

Another Blunt supporter, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), said that when a lawmaker told him he would back Blunt, “It implies the whole Kahuna.”

Other members and aides to the candidates were less definitive, saying some supporters were obviously committed for two ballots and others would require a separate pitch for each round of voting.

Underdogs in both the Leader and Whip contests spent their final hours trying to define their races as pitting change versus more of the same. Several sent out last-minute letters and statements presenting their visions for leadership and how they might change the direction of the Conference if they were elected.

Some Shadegg supporters have worn stickers that say “Shadegg = Reform,” and a few of them joked to each other that the Blunt campaign had produced its own sticker: “Blunt = Status Quo.”

Rogers, a Whip candidate, introduced a comprehensive lobbying reform bill and also proposed a two-year moratorium on new Indian casinos.

And Tiahrt’s supporters in the Whip race sent out a “Dear Colleague” letter saying: “The latest Gallup poll has Republicans in Congress down eight points in the last 100 days. We have a serious perception problem requiring immediate action. The Conference needs new direction and fresh faces at Speaker Hastert’s leadership table.”