The executive branch must impose a comprehensive ban on prediction market betting by all executive branch political appointees and career officials required to submit public financial reports and prohibit all career employees from placing bets related to political or military events, according to a letter CREW submitted to the Office of Government Ethics (OGE). 

Recent reports of potential insider trading by executive branch employees on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have raised concerns about officials leveraging access to non-public information about government operations for personal profit. Not only is insider trading a violation of ethics law, it also undermines the American people’s trust in government and poses a risk to national security. 

Since Kalshi became the first U.S. regulated prediction market in 2020, the industry has exploded, from a monthly transaction volume of a little over $1 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion in January 2026. A recent BBC analysis found a consistent pattern of trading spikes on prediction markets hours or even minutes before a major announcement came from the president. This includes bets on the timing of U.S. airstrikes in Iran, bets on the ouster of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei just before his assassination and bets on oil prices just prior to an Iranian ceasefire announcement. Alarmingly, many of these bets were placed by new accounts with little or no other trading activity, which could indicate insider trading.

Bets of this kind could tip off foreign adversaries, potentially undermining U.S. military action and placing national security at risk. The potential for officials to profit off of these decisions also raises serious fears that they may alter their official actions in order to impact a market, instead of acting in the country’s best interest. 

For that reason, CREW urges OGE to implement regulations related to executive branch employees’ use of prediction markets. In addition to prohibiting all government employees from placing bets on political or military events and comprehensively banning senior officials from prediction markets, OGE should require senior officials to fully divest from personal stakes in prediction market companies, including Trump Media and Technology Group, which has partnered with Crypto.com to operate a prediction market. 

To protect our democracy and national security, OGE must lead an executive branch effort to regulate executive branch appointees and career civil servants’ use of prediction markets and institute this needed ban. 

Read the letter here.

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